Forum:2010 Atlantic hurricane season/Karl
13L.KARL AoI: Near Trinidad Up on the NHC at 40%. GFS model sends it on a Dean/Alex-like track, and stalls it in the BoC. 2007Astro'sHurricane 11:59, September 9, 2010 (UTC) 92L.INVEST The models don't seem very confused with this one. The general consensus seems to be on a general northwest track. Most of them drive it into the islands of the Greater Antilles and consequently give it a hard time developing. But a lot of them seem to think it'll become better organized later in the period as moves away from Cuba into the northwest Caribbean, headed for the Gulf of Mexico. -- [http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/User:SkyFury Sky][http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/User_talk:SkyFury Fury] 20:09, September 9, 2010 (UTC) :IMO, they're all pretty straightforward. I don't know if 92L's progress will be hindered enough for development, but this one bears watching for sure. This is the exact same area where Gustav formed. Keep your eyes out. Ryan1000 21:21, September 9, 2010 (UTC) ::Models go anywhere from the Bahamas and Florida to the Yucatan and northern Tamaulipas. SHIPS model combined with ensemble and model spread puts a cat. 3 hurricane in the Gulf. Possible future interaction with Gaston which would pull this storm farther north.2007Astro'sHurricane 23:43, September 9, 2010 (UTC) :::Still organizing. Up to 50% risk. --Patteroast 23:24, September 10, 2010 (UTC) ::::High risk! 60%. --Patteroast 12:53, September 11, 2010 (UTC) :::::Still just sitting there at 60%... looking pretty thin at the moment, though. --Patteroast 05:46, September 12, 2010 (UTC) ::::::Redeveloped a bit, but down to 50%. --Patteroast 13:37, September 12, 2010 (UTC) :::::::New burst of convection, and looks like a significant rain threat for Haiti. I don't like the HWRF, which consistently puts the storm center over Haiti, but most models bring it over or just north of Jamaica. Looking like a BoC/Western Gulf storm.2007Astro'sHurricane 14:36, September 12, 2010 (UTC) ::::::: :::::::I get the feeling that interaction with land is what's slowing this one down. Once it gets into the western Caribbean, it'll have a better chance to develop and the models agree with :::::::me. The general consensus is taking a depression into the Yucatan and then developing it into Tropical Storm Karl before driving it into mainland Mexico. Most of the models make it :::::::pretty strong; at least 55-60 knots. Only NOGAPS is unimpressed with it. -- [http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/User:SkyFury Sky][http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/User_talk:SkyFury Fury] 18:15, September 13, 2010 (UTC) Tropical Storm Karl It's September. Has somewhat of a shot at hurricane intensity after the Yucatan. Strangely, this is the only time a storm named "Karl" formed anywhere but the deep tropics. Jake52 21:04, September 14, 2010 (UTC) :Again the NHC is upgrading from invest directly to a TS, the third or forth time in 2010 I think. --88.102.101.245 21:46, September 14, 2010 (UTC) ::A slight slow-down in forward speed and it could easily become a hurricane, or even stall as GFS initially predicted. This could be bad for Veracruz, possibly even a re-Lorenzo. Some warm 29-31C waters in its path. 2007Astro'sHurricane 22:12, September 14, 2010 (UTC) :::I must say, I'm surprised it went straight to Karl. I kinda expected to be talking about Tropical Depression Thirteen right now. The last Karl, a rather impressive hurricane out where Igor and Julia are hanging out, formed two days later. We're ahead of 2004's pace. In fact, we're ahead of every pace since 1936 except for 1995 and 2005. It would appear those prognosticators we were mocking back in July are having the last laugh. -- [http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/User:SkyFury Sky][http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/User_talk:SkyFury Fury] 05:37, September 15, 2010 (UTC) ::::Landfall on the Yucatan. Karl was strengthening all the way until it hit land... a bit more water and it probably would have just made hurricane strength. But it's over land now, so it's wait and see time for how quickly it'll redevelop over the Gulf of Mexico. --Patteroast17:56, September 15, 2010 (UTC) :::It looks like Karl is heading for Tampico, but it isn't a big storm, and if it can hold together while crossing the Yucatan, things will not turn out so well for that area. It could explode in the Gulf. Stay tuned. Ryan1000 20:15, September 15, 2010 (UTC) ::::Starting to develop an eye. This could be a cat. 2 at landfall, or a cat. 3 if it stalls significantly in the Gulf. 2007Astro'sHurricane 01:56, September 16, 2010 (UTC) :::::WTF Karl? You start to organize OVER the Yucutan, and you get an eye, just hours preceding exit? What do you have for us next?! Make it good Karl, make it good. atomic7732 03:01, September 16, 2010 (UTC) :::::This is pretty much what Alex managed to do. --88.102.101.245 09:39, September 16, 2010 (UTC) ::::::We are on the verge of having three simultaneous Atlantic hurricanes for the first time since 2005...and we barely had it then. This time, we could have three active for as long as two days. Julia's weakening fast though, Karl better get on with it. -- [http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/User:SkyFury Sky][http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/User_talk:SkyFury Fury] 14:21, September 16, 2010 (UTC) Hurricane Karl Yikes. Upgraded and the advisory says "...KARL IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN STEADILY...AND POSSIBLY RAPIDLY." Hurricane warnings up. --Patteroast 15:34, September 16, 2010 (UTC) :IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT KARL COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL. This is scary... Storm's Eye 15:39, September 16, 2010 (UTC) : :I said below in the Retirements section, "if it explodes and turns out to be as bad as Charlie was for the area in 1951, yes." Does that prediction I made below have to come true? If it does, this will be the first time in Atlantic basin history that there were 3 successive category 4's in a single season. WOW. This storm is very small, but could be very potient. Stay tuned. This could be much worse than Alex was. Ryan1000 20:15, September 16, 2010 (UTC) :This storm is basically starting to take the exact same track as Marco 2008, but is already stronger and could yet rapidly intensify. Slight chance of a cat. 3 at landfall, but will not affect as large an area as Alex. It seems to be barreling toward the WSW, so if it stalls for a bit and goes on a more WNW turn, it could make a huge difference in terms of intensity. Remember the Tabasco floods in 2007? This could set up a pattern and cause something similar. This is also the first trio of three simultaneous hurricanes in a dozen years, and this didn't even happen in 2005. We are two storms behind 1995 at this point, but if Karl becomes a major, this will be the first time since 1961 that all three simultaneous hurricanes was a major at some point. SSTs a very warm 29.5C-30C in its future path, and the storm will have more access to warmer water and slightly more shallow water to aid in strengthening if it veers farther north. Watch for any signs of stalling. 2007Astro'sHurricane 23:49, September 16, 2010 (UTC) : :I don't know if it will stall, but Karl is one happy hurricane right now. It's in an oasis in the Bay of Campeche, and It has a potential to explode before landfall. The pressure is 977 mbars right now, a little low for a category 1 with 80 mph winds. If it does bomb in the bay and reach category 4 or 5 before landfall(which is somewhat unlikely), then this thing will be the worst hurricane ever known to hit the area. Stay tuned. This could be very bad. Ryan1000 00:07, September 17, 2010 (UTC) :Per RBT, Karl is now Cat 2 with 85 kts/971 hPa. Darren23Edits|Mail 01:55, September 17, 2010 (UTC) ::Forecast to be a Cat 3 at landfall. -88.102.101.245 05:27, September 17, 2010 (UTC) :::This has gotten really ugly really fast. Karl is having a field day out there. Last time we had three consecutive major hurricanes: 2004...the last time this list was used. Same three letters. Unfortunately however, not the same three names. By my count, this is the ninth time in recorded history that three hurricanes have been active at once in the Atlantic. August 21-24, 1886 (there were four active on Aug. 23-24); August 17-22, 1893 (there were four active on Aug. 19 and 22); September 12-14, 1926; September 7-12, 1961 (there were nearly four active on the 12th. Betsy became extratropical less than twelve hours before Esther became a hurricane); September 8, 1980; August 30-31, 1995; September 23-27, 1998 (there were four active Sep. 25-26); September 8, 2005; and now September 16-17, 2010. -- [http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/User:SkyFury Sky][http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/User_talk:SkyFury Fury]06:56, September 17, 2010 (UTC) Major hurricane Karl And there it is. 105kn / 961 hPa. --88.102.101.245 09:00, September 17, 2010 (UTC) :And forcast to be cat 4 in about 12 hours. Wow. That would be the third consecutive cat 4 in a row, a first in history I guess. --88.102.101.245 09:07, September 17, 2010 (UTC) : :Yes, it would be the first 3 consecutive category 4's in history, and If it hits the Gulf coast of Mexico as a 4, it will be the first category 4 hurricane to hit Mexico's Gulf coast since Hurricane :Gilbert in 1988. Also, It will be the worst hurricane to hit this area in Mexico since Hurricane Charlie in 1951, which crashed into Tampico as a category 4, 135 mph winds. Also, the NHC says 140, not :135, for this storm. The only thing I can hope from Karl is those small pocket of nasty-ass winds spare Veracruz from a direct hit. Karl only has hurricane-force winds going out 25 miles from the center, so the slightest turn could make the difference between catastrophic and lucky for Mexico. Stay tuned. This could get ugly! Ryan1000 11:36, September 17, 2010 (UTC) :And.... Karl has made landfall. For the record, this storm exploded faster than any storm on record in the Bay of Campeche, but unfortunately, the city of Veracruz did get a direct slamming from Karl near maximum intensity. This storm was getting ready to explode a lot further than where it got, at 120 mph. Had Karl not turned to the west-southwest like it did, it easily could have hit Mexico as a category 4 or even 5 storm right about now. It didn't reach cat. 4, but it did directly hit the largest port city in Mexico with 115 mph winds. Not only was it the first major hurricane on record to hit the city of Veracruz directly, but became the strongest hurricane on record in the Bay of Campeche, surpassing Hurricane Item in 1950. Karl was also the first major hurricane to hit Mexico's Gulf coast since Hurricane Emily in 2005, and the first major hurricane to make landfall as a major hurricane anywhere in the Atlantic basin since Hurricane Ike in 2008. This thing is also the first major hurricane to hit the gulf coast of the Gulf of Mexico since Wilma in 2005. It wasn't as strong as it could've been, but it probrably couldn't have gotten any worse than it could've had been... I have a bad feeling Karl will have BIG damage and death numbers from Veracruz. This season is far from over; Karl is only storm number 11 in the 2010 AHS, and we have two months and two weeks until we can officially call it a season. Nor is it out of the question we could get two more category 4's to break the record of 5 in 1999 and 2005. Ryan1000 20:07, September 17, 2010 (UTC) ::Also, Karl is the only major hurricane ever recorded in the Bay of Campeche. It did miss the heart of Veracruz by a few miles or so to the north, but that's not enough to the extent of where it didn't do severe damage. Veracruz rarely sees direct hits from strong hurricanes because it is way too far south. Tropical storms do every once in a while come into the city; it happened 3 times in 2005, with Bret, Gert, and Jose, but all of those storms were weak and caused little damage. This storm was a category 3 at landfall. No major hurricane has ever directly affected the city of Veracruz... until now. It might take some time to get some official damage estimates out, but when they do come, i'm fearing they will be BIG. We didn't get so lucky with Karl. It's the first major hurricane to actually make landfall as a signifigant storm thus far in 2010, although Alex also caused quite some impact back in June/July, and was very close to becoming a major hurricane. Karl was our second bad storm thus far, and there could be plenty more from where this one came from, starting with Igor. I greatly fear what will be in store for us during the rest of this season. Ryan1000 00:09, September 18, 2010 (UTC) Post-tropical Karl Karl is gone. The impact in Veracruz was probrably extreme, and it isn't impossible that it's remnants could cross over and become Georgette. We will have to wait and see. Ryan1000 11:58, September 18, 2010 (UTC) :Eight people killed, six missing. 2007Astro'sHurricane 19:49, September 19, 2010 (UTC)